# Future Banker: Sifter Card *https://sifter.finance/sifter/future-banker* University of Finance · Class of 2027 · 79 Sprint calls, 76 settled, 34 right · 77 Spread pairs · 9 Quarter books Example record. Future Banker is fictional. The calls and books were entered with past dates, and every result was settled from real prices by the same jobs real students use. Junior studying economics and statistics. I joined our student fund in my sophomore year and started using the Training Floor to build a record of how I think about risk, not just which stocks I like. ## The Sprint: two-week calls with a stated confidence The 30 most recent of 79. - NVDA long · 65% confidence · made Nov 10, 2026, due Nov 24, 2026 · open. Data center orders keep beating estimates. Could be wrong if: A large customer cuts its chip budget. - HD long · 61% confidence · made Oct 29, 2026, due Nov 12, 2026 · open. Housing turnover picks up as rates ease. Could be wrong if: Another quarter of falling store traffic. - COST long · 64% confidence · made Oct 28, 2026, due Nov 11, 2026 · open. Membership renewals keep rising and margins hold. Could be wrong if: A miss on same-store sales. - AMZN long · 62% confidence · made Oct 13, 2026, due Oct 27, 2026 · missed. Retail margins keep improving and AWS growth should hold in the late-October report. Could be wrong if: Wrong if AMZN trails the S&P, or AWS growth slows. - KO long · 60% confidence · made Oct 1, 2026, due Oct 15, 2026 · hit. Pricing is holding up and the October report should confirm that volume is stable. Could be wrong if: Wrong if KO trails the S&P, or volume falls in the report. - PG long · 57% confidence · made Sep 21, 2026, due Oct 5, 2026 · missed. Defensive stocks have lagged for months and the market is starting to look for safety. Could be wrong if: Wrong if PG trails the S&P, or the S&P keeps rallying on tech. - ORCL long · 61% confidence · made Sep 8, 2026, due Sep 22, 2026 · missed. The cloud backlog is large and the September report is the next proof point. Could be wrong if: Wrong if ORCL trails the S&P, or backlog growth slows in the report. - HD short · 58% confidence · made Aug 24, 2026, due Sep 7, 2026 · hit. Housing turnover is low and big renovation projects keep getting pushed back. Could be wrong if: Wrong if HD beats the S&P, or mortgage rates fall sharply. - LLY long · 67% confidence · made Aug 10, 2026, due Aug 24, 2026 · hit. Demand for weight-loss drugs is still ahead of supply, and new capacity comes online this quarter. Could be wrong if: Wrong if LLY trails the S&P, or a competitor publishes better trial results. - DIS short · 55% confidence · made Aug 3, 2026, due Aug 17, 2026 · missed. Parks attendance is slowing and streaming profit is not yet big enough to offset it. Could be wrong if: Wrong if DIS beats the S&P, or parks guidance is raised. - NFLX long · 64% confidence · made Jul 20, 2026, due Aug 3, 2026 · hit. Ad revenue is ramping faster than the market models, and the July report should show it. Could be wrong if: Wrong if NFLX trails the S&P, or subscriber growth slows in the report. - AAPL long · 56% confidence · made Jul 13, 2026, due Jul 27, 2026 · hit. Services keeps growing and buybacks support the stock ahead of the July report. Could be wrong if: Wrong if AAPL trails the S&P, or iPhone guidance is cut. - UNH short · 60% confidence · made Jul 6, 2026, due Jul 20, 2026 · missed. Medical cost trends are still rising, and the July report could show it in the margin. Could be wrong if: Wrong if UNH beats the S&P, or management reaffirms full-year guidance with no cost pressure. - COST long · 60% confidence · made Jun 29, 2026, due Jul 13, 2026 · missed. Membership renewals are steady and the stock tends to hold up when the market wobbles. Could be wrong if: Wrong if COST trails the S&P, or the monthly sales report shows traffic slowing. - XOM short · 55% confidence · made Jun 15, 2026, due Jun 29, 2026 · hit. Oil inventories are building and the stock has not followed crude lower yet. Could be wrong if: Wrong if oil rallies more than 5%, or XOM beats the S&P. - AVGO long · 66% confidence · made Jun 8, 2026, due Jun 22, 2026 · missed. Custom AI chip orders keep growing, and the June report is the next chance to show it. Could be wrong if: Wrong if AVGO trails the S&P, or AI revenue guidance comes in flat. - TGT short · 57% confidence · made Jun 1, 2026, due Jun 15, 2026 · missed. Discretionary spending is soft, and Target sells more of it than Walmart or Costco. Could be wrong if: Wrong if Target beats the S&P, or same-store sales surprise to the upside. - JPM long · 60% confidence · made May 18, 2026, due Jun 1, 2026 · missed. Net interest income guidance went up while bank stocks lagged the market. That difference should close as investors rotate back. Could be wrong if: Wrong if JPM trails the S&P, or rate-cut expectations jump. - NKE short · 58% confidence · made May 11, 2026, due May 25, 2026 · missed. Wholesale partners are still clearing old inventory, so the turnaround reaches margins later than the market expects. Could be wrong if: Wrong if Nike beats the S&P over the two weeks, or a major retailer reports clean inventory. - MSFT long · 62% confidence · made May 4, 2026, due May 18, 2026 · missed. Azure growth held up in the April report and the stock gave back the gain with the rest of software. The selloff priced in a slowdown the numbers do not show yet. Could be wrong if: Wrong if MSFT trails the S&P over the two weeks, or a large customer publicly cuts cloud spending. - BAC long · 58% confidence · made Apr 27, 2026, due May 11, 2026 · missed. BAC has lagged the market by 2.8% in a month, more than its business explains. A gap like that usually narrows. Could be wrong if: Wrong if BAC trails the S&P over the two weeks. - GE long · 59% confidence · made Apr 20, 2026, due May 4, 2026 · missed. GE trailed the S&P by 3.3% over the past month with no news that changes the business. I expect part of that gap to close in two weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if GE trails the S&P over the two weeks. - AVGO short · 65% confidence · made Apr 13, 2026, due Apr 27, 2026 · missed. AVGO is up 8.6% more than the market in a month, ahead of what the business news supports. I expect it to give part of that back. Could be wrong if: Wrong if AVGO beats the S&P over the two weeks. - CRM long · 59% confidence · made Apr 6, 2026, due Apr 20, 2026 · missed. CRM trailed the S&P by 3.3% over the past month with no news that changes the business. I expect part of that gap to close in two weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if CRM trails the S&P over the two weeks. - NKE long · 67% confidence · made Mar 30, 2026, due Apr 13, 2026 · missed. NKE has lagged the market by 9.8% in a month, more than its business explains. A gap like that usually narrows. Could be wrong if: Wrong if NKE trails the S&P over the two weeks. - PEP long · 59% confidence · made Mar 23, 2026, due Apr 6, 2026 · hit. PEP trailed the S&P by 3.1% over the past month with no news that changes the business. I expect part of that gap to close in two weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if PEP trails the S&P over the two weeks. - UNH long · 57% confidence · made Mar 16, 2026, due Mar 30, 2026 · missed. UNH has been ahead of the market by 2% this month on steady news. I expect it to stay ahead for two more weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if UNH trails the S&P over the two weeks. - GOOGL long · 66% confidence · made Mar 9, 2026, due Mar 23, 2026 · hit. GOOGL trailed the S&P by 9.1% over the past month with no news that changes the business. I expect part of that gap to close in two weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if GOOGL trails the S&P over the two weeks. - TSLA long · 58% confidence · made Mar 2, 2026, due Mar 16, 2026 · hit. TSLA has lagged the market by 2.2% in a month, more than its business explains. A gap like that usually narrows. Could be wrong if: Wrong if TSLA trails the S&P over the two weeks. - DE short · 90% confidence · made Feb 25, 2026, due Mar 11, 2026 · hit. DE ran 25.6% ahead of the S&P in a single month. A move that far that fast almost always gives some back, so I expect it to trail over the next two weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if DE beats the S&P over the two weeks. ## The Spread: one stock against another The 30 most recent of 77. - V long against MA short · 60% confidence · made Oct 29, 2026, due Nov 28, 2026 · open. Visa grows cross-border volume faster. Could be wrong if: Mastercard keeps winning new contracts. - COST long against TGT short · 62% confidence · made Oct 28, 2026, due Nov 27, 2026 · open. Membership income holds up better than discount retail. Could be wrong if: Target wins back traffic two quarters running. - AMD long against INTC short · 62% confidence · made Sep 8, 2026, due Oct 8, 2026 · won. AMD keeps taking data-center share, and Intel's manufacturing plan still needs more money. Could be wrong if: Wrong if INTC beats AMD, or Intel announces a large foundry customer. - JPM long against C short · 60% confidence · made Aug 3, 2026, due Sep 2, 2026 · won. JPMorgan earns more from steady fees, so it should hold up better if rates fall. Could be wrong if: Wrong if C beats JPM, or Citi's restructuring shows faster savings. - COST long against WMT short · 57% confidence · made Jul 6, 2026, due Aug 5, 2026 · lost. Costco's membership model holds up better if shoppers trade down, and Walmart's run has priced in more. Could be wrong if: Wrong if WMT beats COST, or Costco's monthly sales slow. - META long against GOOGL short · 55% confidence · made Jun 8, 2026, due Jul 8, 2026 · won. Meta's ad prices are rising faster, while Google faces questions about search share. Could be wrong if: Wrong if GOOGL beats META, or Meta raises its spending guidance again. - UAL long against DAL short · 58% confidence · made May 11, 2026, due Jun 10, 2026 · lost. UAL fell 4.8% behind DAL over the past month, which is a wide gap for two companies in the same business. I expect part of it to close. Could be wrong if: Wrong if DAL beats UAL over the month. - HD long against LOW short · 58% confidence · made May 11, 2026, due Jun 10, 2026 · won. Home Depot sells more to contractors, who are busier right now than do-it-yourself customers. Could be wrong if: Wrong if LOW beats HD over the month, or contractor sales slow. - UPS long against FDX short · 54% confidence · made May 4, 2026, due Jun 3, 2026 · won. UPS is 0.7% ahead of FDX over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if FDX beats UPS over the month. - DE long against CAT short · 68% confidence · made Apr 27, 2026, due May 27, 2026 · lost. DE fell 21.3% behind CAT over the past month, which is a wide gap for two companies in the same business. I expect part of it to close. Could be wrong if: Wrong if CAT beats DE over the month. - PFE long against JNJ short · 55% confidence · made Apr 20, 2026, due May 20, 2026 · lost. PFE is 2% ahead of JNJ over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if JNJ beats PFE over the month. - NVO long against LLY short · 56% confidence · made Apr 13, 2026, due May 13, 2026 · won. NVO has edged ahead of LLY by 2.6% this month, and nothing in either company's news suggests that turns in the next few weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if LLY beats NVO over the month. - UNH long against CVS short · 56% confidence · made Apr 6, 2026, due May 6, 2026 · won. UNH is 2.6% ahead of CVS over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if CVS beats UNH over the month. - MCD long against SBUX short · 54% confidence · made Mar 30, 2026, due Apr 29, 2026 · lost. MCD has edged ahead of SBUX by 1.1% this month, and nothing in either company's news suggests that turns in the next few weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if SBUX beats MCD over the month. - COST long against WMT short · 55% confidence · made Mar 23, 2026, due Apr 22, 2026 · lost. COST is 1.9% ahead of WMT over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if WMT beats COST over the month. - WMT long against TGT short · 62% confidence · made Mar 16, 2026, due Apr 15, 2026 · lost. WMT fell 9.5% behind TGT over the past month, which is a wide gap for two companies in the same business. I expect part of it to close. Could be wrong if: Wrong if TGT beats WMT over the month. - CRM long against ADBE short · 54% confidence · made Mar 9, 2026, due Apr 8, 2026 · won. CRM is 1.1% ahead of ADBE over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if ADBE beats CRM over the month. - ORCL long against MSFT short · 58% confidence · made Mar 2, 2026, due Apr 1, 2026 · won. ORCL fell 4.6% behind MSFT over the past month, which is a wide gap for two companies in the same business. I expect part of it to close. Could be wrong if: Wrong if MSFT beats ORCL over the month. - GOOGL long against META short · 59% confidence · made Feb 23, 2026, due Mar 25, 2026 · won. GOOGL has trailed META by 5.9% in a month without a change in either business that explains it. I expect the gap to narrow. Could be wrong if: Wrong if META beats GOOGL over the month. - AMD long against NVDA short · 60% confidence · made Feb 16, 2026, due Mar 18, 2026 · won. AMD fell 6.8% behind NVDA over the past month, which is a wide gap for two companies in the same business. I expect part of it to close. Could be wrong if: Wrong if NVDA beats AMD over the month. - AMD long against INTC short · 68% confidence · made Feb 9, 2026, due Mar 11, 2026 · lost. AMD has trailed INTC by 21.2% in a month without a change in either business that explains it. I expect the gap to narrow. Could be wrong if: Wrong if INTC beats AMD over the month. - XOM long against CVX short · 54% confidence · made Feb 2, 2026, due Mar 4, 2026 · won. XOM has edged ahead of CVX by 1.4% this month, and nothing in either company's news suggests that turns in the next few weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if CVX beats XOM over the month. - GS long against MS short · 55% confidence · made Jan 26, 2026, due Feb 25, 2026 · won. GS is 2.2% ahead of MS over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if MS beats GS over the month. - JPM long against BAC short · 55% confidence · made Jan 19, 2026, due Feb 18, 2026 · lost. JPM has edged ahead of BAC by 2.1% this month, and nothing in either company's news suggests that turns in the next few weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if BAC beats JPM over the month. - V long against MA short · 54% confidence · made Jan 12, 2026, due Feb 11, 2026 · won. V is 0.6% ahead of MA over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if MA beats V over the month. - KO long against PEP short · 55% confidence · made Jan 5, 2026, due Feb 4, 2026 · lost. KO has edged ahead of PEP by 1.6% this month, and nothing in either company's news suggests that turns in the next few weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if PEP beats KO over the month. - LOW long against HD short · 56% confidence · made Dec 29, 2025, due Jan 28, 2026 · won. LOW is 2.8% ahead of HD over the past month on steadier results. I expect it to stay ahead. Could be wrong if: Wrong if HD beats LOW over the month. - NKE long against LULU short · 88% confidence · made Dec 24, 2025, due Jan 23, 2026 · won. NKE fell 32.8% behind LULU in a month, the widest gap of any pair I follow. Two companies in the same business rarely stay that far apart, so I am confident it narrows. Could be wrong if: Wrong if LULU beats NKE over the month. - AAPL long against MSFT short · 54% confidence · made Dec 22, 2025, due Jan 21, 2026 · lost. AAPL has edged ahead of MSFT by 1.2% this month, and nothing in either company's news suggests that turns in the next few weeks. Could be wrong if: Wrong if MSFT beats AAPL over the month. - NFLX long against DIS short · 80% confidence · made Dec 17, 2025, due Jan 16, 2026 · lost. NFLX has trailed DIS by 19.9% in a month. Nothing in either business explains a gap that large, and I expect much of it to close. Could be wrong if: Wrong if DIS beats NFLX over the month. ## The Quarter: a book built to a brief - AAPL 20%, JPM 15%, LLY 15%, CAT 15%, HD 15%, GOOGL 20% · against SPY · made Sep 15, 2026, due Dec 14, 2026 · open. Core exposure across six sectors with a tilt toward healthcare and industrials. Risk named in advance: LLY is 15% of the book and reports in late October. A big move there could push tracking error past 10% on its own. - NVDA 25%, AVGO 20%, AMD 20%, META 20%, PLTR 15% · against SPY · made Jul 1, 2026, due Sep 29, 2026 · settled. A concentrated bet on AI spending through chips, platforms and software. Risk named in advance: Every stock depends on AI spending, so a pause in data-center orders hits the whole book at once. - MSFT 20%, JPM 20%, V 15%, HD 15%, WMT 15%, PG 15% · against SPY · made Jun 1, 2026, due Aug 30, 2026 · settled. Steady earners that should fall less than the market. Payments and a bank keep it from becoming a pure staples bet. Risk named in advance: A sharp tech-led rally would leave the book far behind the S&P and push tracking error well above 10%. - MSFT 20%, AAPL 15%, JPM 15%, AMZN 15%, HD 15%, CAT 20% · against SPY · made Mar 2, 2026, due May 31, 2026 · settled. Market-like exposure with a tilt toward businesses that keep earning in a slowdown. Six stocks across five sectors, so no single sector drives the book. Risk named in advance: Three of the six are large tech and consumer platforms, so a tech selloff would push tracking error above my call. - AVGO 20%, META 20%, NFLX 20%, CRWD 20%, ANET 20% · against SPY · made Jan 5, 2026, due Apr 5, 2026 · settled. Growth leaders in chips, networking, security and media, each with its own earnings story. Risk named in advance: Three of the five sell into data-center spending, so they could move together more than last year suggests. - GOOGL 20%, JPM 20%, LLY 15%, HD 15%, CAT 15%, MSFT 15% · against SPY · made Sep 2, 2025, due Dec 1, 2025 · settled. Six sectors at roughly market weight, with a tilt toward healthcare and industrials. Risk named in advance: LLY reports during the quarter and can move 15% on one trial result. - TSLA 20%, NVDA 20%, COIN 20%, SHOP 20%, UBER 20% · against SPY · made Jun 2, 2025, due Aug 31, 2025 · settled. High-growth companies that should amplify a market recovering from the spring selloff. Risk named in advance: TSLA and COIN can each move 10% in a day on news that has nothing to do with the market. - MSFT 20%, JPM 20%, V 15%, PG 15%, KO 15%, JNJ 15% · against SPY · made Apr 1, 2025, due Jun 30, 2025 · settled. Half staples and healthcare, half quality financials and software, so it should fall less than the market without becoming a pure staples bet. Risk named in advance: Staples barely move with the S&P, so a big market swing either way shows up as tracking error. - MSFT 20%, AAPL 20%, JPM 15%, AMZN 15%, GOOGL 15%, CAT 15% · against SPY · made Mar 3, 2025, due Jun 1, 2025 · settled. Large, profitable companies that move with the market, with a bank and a machinery maker so the book is not only tech. Risk named in advance: Four of the six are big tech, so the book will run hotter than my call if tech moves on its own.